Data analysis: How each LIV Golf player could win the U.S. Open

Shinnecock Hills Golf Club is one of the hardest major venues and over the previous U.S. Opens held here, the course stroke average is more than 4 strokes over par. Every hole other than the two par 5s plays over par, and 12 of the holes play more than 0.25 over par. This is a pure Bogey Avoidance golf course and this week’s winning score will likely be over par.

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KEYS TO SUCCESS

Minimizing dropped shots and blow-up holes will be the key to success, specifically:

• Aggressive Driving Accuracy – The fairways at Shinnecock Hills are generous and much easier to hit than the tour average and the missed fairway penalty is high, so players must look to find a high percentage of fairways.

• Bogey Avoidance – More important than making birdies this week.

• Greens In Regulation – Having a high GIR% is THE most vital metric this week. Missing greens will cost significant shots versus the field on every hole on the course. As such, proximity to the hole doesn’t matter too much as a long first putt on every hole is a better option than a miss green and a chip.

• Lag Putting – Excellent lag putting from outside 20 feet is vitally important here. Although three-putts are expected, players who can minimize these will beat the field on the greens.

• Wedges inside 100 yards – 24% of approach shots will come at this distance vs. the league average of 17%. With how difficult the greens are to hit and how penal they are when missed, players must be elite with wedges this week

• Approaches between 175-200 yards – Just under 30% of approach shots will be from this distance (likely six shots per round), so players need to execute well from here

THREE REASONS FOR EACH PLAYER

Thirteen LIV Golf players are in the U.S. Open field. Here are three reasons why each player should feel confident going into Thursday’s first round at Shinnecock Hills:

Laurie Canter

• Ranked 4th on LIV Golf in Greens in Regulation, which is one of the biggest keys at Shinnecock where missed greens are heavily punished.

• Strong Off the Tee numbers (6th) should allow him to take advantage of the generous fairways while still keeping the ball in play.

• Arrives with no previous experience at Shinnecock but with a game that looks well suited to the demands of the course.

Bryson DeChambeau

• One of the best drivers on LIV Golf this season, ranking 3rd Off the Tee and 4th in Bogey Avoidance.

• Ranked 5th from 175-200 yards, one of the most important approach distances this week.

• A two-time U.S. Open champion who has shown repeatedly that tough setups suit him.

Tyrrell Hatton

• Strong right across the board with no obvious weakness in the key areas.

• Top 20 in Bogey Avoidance, Greens in Regulation and 175-200 yard play.

• Finished T6 at Shinnecock in 2018 and closed with a superb 69.

Lucas Herbert

• Ranked 2nd on LIV Golf from 175-200 yards, a huge strength on this golf course.

• Strong Off the Tee numbers (8th) should help him attack while still finding plenty of fairways.

• Ranked 12th with wedges inside 100 yards, another area that will be important this week.

Dustin Johnson

• Finished 3rd here in 2018 and has already shown he knows how to play Shinnecock.

• Ranked 2nd on LIV Golf in Putting from outside 20 feet, which could be a massive advantage on these greens.

• His patient style and ability to stay out of trouble are well-suited to U.S. Open golf.

Graeme McDowell

• Former U.S. Open champion with plenty of experience in difficult conditions.

• Ranked 15th from 175-200 yards, one of the most important distances this week.

• Shinnecock rewards patience and smart decision making, both hallmarks of his best golf.

Joaquin Niemann

• The best Off the Tee player in the league this season and one of the best drivers in the field.

• Ranked inside the top 10 for Greens in Regulation and 175-200 yard play.

• Arrives in excellent form and has the ball-striking to thrive at Shinnecock.

Carlos Ortiz

• Ranked 8th on LIV Golf with wedges inside 100 yards, an area expected to play a bigger role than usual.

• Solid Off the Tee and strong from 175-200 yards.

• Showed last year with his Top 5 finish in the U.S. Open that he can compete on the biggest stage.

David Puig

• Top 13 in every one of the key stats for Shinnecock.

• Ranked 6th Off the Tee and 10th in Greens in Regulation.

• Also sits 7th in Putting from outside 20 feet, which could be a real advantage on these difficult greens.

Jon Rahm

• Leads LIV in both Bogey Avoidance and Greens in Regulation, two of the biggest keys this week.

• Ranked 2nd with wedges inside 100 yards and 2nd Off the Tee.

• Missed the cut here in 2018, but his all-around game is much stronger and more complete now.

Cameron Smith

• Ranked 3rd on LIV Golf in Putting from outside 20 feet, making him one of the best lag putters in the field.

• Strong Bogey Avoidance numbers should serve him well on a course where par is a good score.

• His imagination and short game have always made him dangerous on tough major championship layouts.

Caleb Surratt

• Ranked 10th in the league in Putting from outside 20 feet, an important skill at Shinnecock.

• Arrives with nothing to lose and the confidence that comes with a strong season.• Major championships often reward patience and resilience, two qualities he has shown plenty of.

Peter Uihlein

• Ranked 8th on LIV with wedges inside 100 yards.

• One of the best lag putters in the league, ranking 4th from outside 20 feet.

• Played here in 2018 and has experience of just how demanding Shinnecock can be.

SUMMARY

Shinnecock Hills is all about keeping mistakes off the card. Players who drive it well, hit plenty of Greens in Regulation and stay patient when conditions get tough are likely to separate themselves. Rahm, DeChambeau and Niemann look particularly well-suited statistically, while Johnson and Hatton bring proven Shinnecock experience. Puig is an interesting outsider, with his numbers lining up remarkably well with what the course demands.