Data analysis: How each LIV Golf player could win The Open

Go inside the stats to see which of the 15 LIV Golf players in this week’s Open Championship field have the best chance of claiming the Claret Jug at Royal Birkdale.

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KEYS TO SUCCESS

Driving Accuracy: Royal Birkdale is an intriguing driving golf course. It doesn’t reward the longest driver, it doesn’t reward the straightest driver, it rewards the player who can pick there best lines and controls the ball the best for four days. Birkdale will make players and caddies make decisions to use less than driver, lay back of the traps, accept longer approaches and avoid running out into rough. Position is more important than inaccurate length.

150-200 yard approaches: The strategy off the tee here will result in longer approach shots. There are two par 3 holes over 220 yards, three par 4 holes over 500 yards as well as five that are over 450 yards. The 150-200 yard range will be key this week and whoever can execute well from here will be teeing off late on Sunday.

GIR% from the Fairway: Hitting the green when players have found the fairway is a key and distinct separator this week in Southport.

SG Around The Green: Around the Green really matters at Royal Birkdale as greens are hard to hit and the misses are penal. The misses here comprise of undulating greens with run from and fast off areas, tough pins with tight lies and deep links pot bunkers.

Lag Putting + Three Putt Avoidance: The Royal Birkdale greens are typical long firm and fast surfaces than will slope from front to back or side to side with ridges, and breaks. It’s hard to take the pins on here as they will be placed strategically to make that difficult. Strong approaches my end up 25 feet-plus from the hole. Lag putting outside 25 feet will be crucial and avoiding three-putts is always a strong factor of success at The Open.

Bogey Avoidance (Over Par %): There will not be a huge amount of birdie opportunities this week so avoiding dropped shots will be key. Pars are good and patience is key.

THREE POSITIVES FOR EACH LIV GOLF PLAYER

Here are three reasons why each of the 15 LIV Golf players could contend at Royal Birkdale, based on the key success factors, their 2026 LIV Golf League stats and course history.

Josele Ballester

• His GIR% from the Fairway ranks 7th on LIV this season, exactly the type of iron play Royal Birkdale rewards after finding position off the tee.

• Despite making his Open debut last year, he has shown he can create scoring chances with quality approach play when given opportunities from the fairway.

• If he drives it more strategically than aggressively, his strong iron play gives him the chance to outperform expectations on a course that doesn't demand power.

Laurie Canter

• Driving Accuracy (5th) and GIR% from the Fairway (5th) are two of the strongest course fit metrics in the field for Royal Birkdale.

• A best Open finish of T17 and four made cuts show he is comfortable with the demands of links golf.

• His T37 finish when The Open was last played at Royal Birkdale provides useful course experience to build upon this week.

Bryson DeChambeau

• His Strokes Gained 150-200 Yard Approach ranks 14th and Over Par % ranks 4th in the league this season, giving him the long iron play and patience needed around Royal Birkdale.

• Two Open Top 10 finishes prove he can contend in this championship despite links golf traditionally being viewed as a different challenge.

• If he keeps the ball in play off the tee, his ability to separate himself with approach play can make him a serious contender.

Thomas Detry

• He arrives with a well-rounded statistical profile, ranking inside the Top 30 in every key metric for this golf course.

• Positive Strokes Gained Around the Green and strong lag putting numbers should help him save valuable pars when greens are inevitably missed.

• Three made cuts from four Open starts, including a best finish of T13, suggest his game translates well to this championship.

Tyrrell Hatton

• His Strokes Gained 150-200 Yard Approach ranks 12th, SG Around the Green 10th and Three-Putt Avoidance 7th, matching three of Royal Birkdale's biggest success factors.

• Few players in the field have more links pedigree, with two Open Top 10 finishes and years of experience in these conditions including three Alfred Dunhill Links wins.

• His ability to grind through difficult scoring conditions makes him a natural fit when par becomes a good score.

Lucas Herbert

• His Strokes Gained 150-200 Yard Approach ranks 5th on LIV this season, an important strength with so many long approach shots expected.

• Positive Strokes Gained Around the Green and solid GIR% from the fairway give him multiple ways to score on a demanding links layout.

• A best Open finish of T15 shows he has already demonstrated he can compete in this championship.

Tom McKibbin

• Driving Accuracy ranks 4th on LIV this season, one of the biggest indicators of success around Royal Birkdale.

• He also sits inside the Top 10 in Over Par %, highlighting the patience and consistency needed when birdies are limited.

• Although his Open experience is still developing, his strategic style of golf looks well suited to this venue.

Joaquin Niemann

• His Strokes Gained 150-200 Yard Approach leads the league apart from one player, ranking 2nd overall, making him one of the strongest long iron players arriving this week.

• Driving Accuracy inside the Top 20 and positive Strokes Gained Around the Green provide a balanced profile across the key areas.

• Having won this season and recording his best major finish last time out, he arrives with the confidence and form needed to challenge for his first major championship.

Victor Perez

• Driving Accuracy (8th) and GIR% from the Fairway (8th) are ideal strengths for a course where position outweighs distance.

• Positive Strokes Gained Around the Green gives him another important asset when recovery shots become unavoidable.

• His extensive links background should help him adapt quickly to whatever conditions Royal Birkdale presents.

David Puig

• His Over Par % ranks 10th in the league this season, showing an improving ability to minimize mistakes on difficult golf courses.

• Positive Strokes Gained 150-200 Yard Approach is encouraging given the volume of long approach shots expected this week.

• Still early in his Open career, he has the aggressive attitude to ball striking to make an impact if he finds enough fairways.

Jon Rahm

• He leads the league in both GIR% from the Fairway and Over Par %, two of the most important indicators for success at Royal Birkdale.

• Positive numbers across every key metric highlight one of the most complete course fits in the championship.

• His Open record speaks for itself, with eight cuts made from nine starts, three Top 10 finishes and a runner-up finish in 2023.

Cameron Smith

• He leads the league in SG Around the Green, Three Putt Avoidance and 20-foot plus putting, three skills that become hugely valuable on firm Open Championship greens.

• As Champion Golfer of the Year in 2022, he has already shown he knows exactly what it takes to win this championship.

• If he can position the ball Off The Tee – something he has improved in recent outings – his short game remains one of the biggest weapons in world golf.

Caleb Surratt

• Positive Strokes Gained Around the Green and solid Three Putt Avoidance give him a platform to handle the inevitable missed greens.

• Making his Open debut allows him to arrive with little expectation and plenty of freedom to attack the week.

• Qualifying on merit and earning his place in the field should provide confidence heading into one of the biggest events of his young career.

Peter Uihlein

• His 20-foot plus putting ranks 1st in the leawgue this season, a major asset on Royal Birkdale's large, undulating greens.

• He also ranks inside the Top 10 for SG Around the Green, giving him two elite short game strengths for Open golf.

• Previous experience at Royal Birkdale and multiple Open appearances provide valuable knowledge of the challenge.

Scott Vincent

• He ranks 3rd in GIR% from the Fairway, 4th in Three Putt Avoidance and 3rd in Over Par %, giving him one of the strongest statistical course fits in the field.

• His game is built around consistency and limiting mistakes, exactly the approach often rewarded in The Open.

• If he continues producing the disciplined golf he has shown throughout the LIV Golf season, he has every chance to contend on a course that rewards patience over power.