10 reasons why Rahm or DeChambeau will win the Masters

As the world's best golfers gather at Augusta National this week, two formidable LIV Golf players emerge as the strongest contenders for the green jacket.

Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau possess the elite ball-striking, mental toughness, and major-winning experience that Augusta National rewards.

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Here are 10 key reasons why one of them is poised to claim victory. 

JON RAHM

1. Elite form

During the past three months, no golfer in the world has played better than the Legion XIII captain. According to DataGolf, Rahm has gained an average of 2.69 strokes on the field per tournament. That puts him above pre-tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler’s +2.67. While he narrowly missed defeating DeChambeau in the LIV Golf South Africa playoff, history suggests that’s not a bad thing: winning the week immediately before the Masters is rare. Only a handful of champions have done so on the PGA Tour, and most recent winners (including himself in 2023) performed well without claiming victory in their final tune-up. Rahm reeled off wins earlier in the season before earning his green jacket in 2023, as did recent champions like Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy.

2. Greens in Regulation

Rahm has led LIV Golf in Greens in Regulation this season at an impressive 82%. Eight of the past 10 Masters champions entered the week ranked 12th or better in GIR within their respective tours. With scrambling historically difficult at Augusta National, Rahm’s elite ball-striking should leave him scrambling far less than the rest of the field. 

3. Ball-striking

Rahm ranks 1st on LIV Golf in Strokes Gained: Approach, a highly predictive stat for success at Augusta National. He also ranks 3rd in the league in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, giving him a powerful combination of distance and accuracy off the tee. This elite ball-striking profile mirrors the strengths of recent Masters champions, and positions Rahm to dominate Augusta's demanding second shots all week.

4. Relief

After snapping his 18-month individual winless streak with a dominant victory at LIV Golf Hong Kong, Rahm repeatedly described the feeling with one word: relief. The breakthrough appears to have lifted a major weight off his shoulders, restoring the confidence and freedom that powered his 2023 Masters win. A relaxed, relieved Rahm is a dangerous Rahm at Augusta National. 

5. Destiny

Rahm has long called Seve Ballesteros his hero and the player who inspired him to fall in love with the game. Ballesteros captured his first Masters in 1980 and then returned to win his second just three years later in 1983. Rahm has already followed a similar path, claiming his first green jacket in 2023. The stars appear perfectly aligned for him to mirror his idol once again this week.

BRYSON DECHAMBEAU

1. Trending at Augusta

DeChambeau has turned a longtime weakness into a major strength at Augusta National. After struggling for his first seven years as a professional, he has posted back-to-back strong showings with a T6 in 2024 and T5 in 2025, staying in serious contention deep into both tournaments. Specifically, DeChambeau has improved his short game on Augusta’s tricky greens. Last season, he led the field in Strokes Gained: Around the Green (+1.63 per round) after losing strokes in that category in each of his previous four trips. He’s also gained strokes putting in each of the last two seasons at the Masters after struggling on the greens previously (-0.73 strokes per round in 2023).  

2. Recent major form

Nine of the last 10 Masters winners had posted a top-six finish in a major championship in one of the previous two seasons leading into their win. DeChambeau finished T5 at last year’s Masters as well as a T2 at the PGA Championship. In 2024, the Crushers GC captain won the U.S. Open and finished runner-up at the PGA Championship. He also finished T6 at the Masters. 

3. Firm and fast

DeChambeau thrives when courses play firm and fast — and he proved it by winning the 2024 U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2 on the baked-out, rock-hard surfaces. During a press conference at LIV Golf Singapore last month, he reaffirmed his preference: “Greens are some of the fastest I’ve ever seen in my entire life, which I love. It’s my favorite thing. I feel like I roll the ball really well on good, firm and fast surfaces.” If Augusta National firms up this week, DeChambeau’s game is perfectly suited to take advantage.

4. Multiple wins

DeChambeau arrives at Augusta National having won back-to-back tournaments at LIV Golf Singapore and LIV Golf South Africa. History strongly favors players who have already won that season. In 2023, Rahm reeled off three early season victories before earning his first green jacket. Recent past champions like Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Dustin Johnson had all won multiple times that year before winning the Masters.

5. Reason to be skeptical of Scheffler and McIlroy

Only Jack Nicklaus, Nick Faldo and Tiger Woods (14 green jackets combined) have ever won back-to-back Masters, with Woods the last to do so in 2002. No defending champion has won in the last decade, and only three have even posted a top-10 finish since 2007.

Whether it’s the extra media duties, the pressure of hosting the Champions Dinner, or — in McIlroy’s case — the enormous weight of finally completing the career Grand Slam being lifted from his shoulders, the burden on the defending champion is very real. 

Scheffler, while still dangerous, has looked like a mere mortal over the past two months. He has failed to finish in the top 10 in three straight starts — the first time that’s happened since July 2022. On top of that, his Strokes Gained: Approach numbers have steadily declined, making him far more beatable this week at Augusta.