Fast starts mean almost nothing at Augusta National

AUGUSTA, Ga. – Tiger Woods has won the Masters five times. 

He’s never held or shared the lead after the first round in any of his 26 career starts. 

Justin Rose has never won the Masters, although he came close last year, losing in a playoff to Rory McIlroy. 

Yet, no player in Masters history has held or share the first-round lead more often than Rose, who’s done it five times. 

No player has won more green jackets than Jack Nicklaus’ six. Only twice did he have the 18-hole lead. 

And only one player since 1985 has held the solo 18-hole lead and eventually won – Jordan Spieth. That’s 40 years’ worth of data. 

The moral of these nuggets? 

Don’t focus on the 18-hole leader Thursday night. Pay more attention to the lurkers. 

They’re the ones who are content to let the rabbits enjoy the early adulation, remaining on the periphery, calculating the appropriate time to strike. 

But that requires patience. 

With all the hoopla on the first day of golf’s first major each year, it’s difficult to dial down the emotions. Standing on that first tee, hearing announcer Toby Wilt say “Now Driving” … no wonder players are tempted to stomp on the gas at the start line. 

Don’t do it. 

“You have to have some patience,” said Jon Rahm, the 2023 Masters champion and two-time reigning LIV Golf Individual Champion. “That might be the hardest thing to remind yourself, right? It's four days. Rory last year started with an even-par round (72) and ended up winning it. 

“I think there was a stat at one point that every time Tiger won, he never shot less than 70 first round or something like that. So, you can build up to it. I think Jack said it famously, tag long, tag along, tag along until you make your stride on the last 18 holes. 

“You don't need to do anything special. I think it's where the expectations come in. You think you need to go shoot 5-under every day – and this is not the case.”

Rahm couldn’t help himself three years ago. 

He opened with a 7-under 65 to share the first-round lead with Viktor Hovland and Brooks Koepka before dropping into solo second for the middle 36 holes, shooting 69-73. He finished with another 69, giving him a comfortable four-shot win over Koepka, who had led after 36 and 54 holes before a harsh 75 to close. 

Building momentum from a great start may work occasionally, but it’s often more pressure than it’s worth. An 18-hole lead means almost nothing at Augusta National. Woods never needed it, as mentioned. Neither did Sam Snead, a three-time winner. Or Ben Hogan or Tom Watson, each with two wins. 

Or Scottie Scheffler, who’s won two of the last four Masters. 

Quite frankly, as Nicklaus suggested, it’s more productive to just float for 54 holes, then burst out on Sunday. Of the 31 champions who never led after any of their first three rounds, seven have come in the last 20 years, including LIV Golf players Phil Mickelson in 2010, Charl Schwartzel in 2011 and Bubba Watson in 2012. 

Even so, it’s still a good idea to stay in close proximity. 

A year ago, McIlroy opened with an even-par 72, leaving him tied for 27th, seven shots off the pace. Historically, that should’ve eliminated him. No champion in the previous 19 Masters had finished the first round worse than T11 or been farther back than six shots. 

Fortunately for the Northern Irishman, he bounced back with a 66, then followed with another 66 in the third round to set himself up to finish off the career grand slam by beating Rose, who was left learning another harsh lesson about quick starts. 

“There was a tendency early in my career to try to be perfect for Thursday,” Rose said. “Yeah, you need to be ready for Thursday, but you kind of need to save your gas for Sunday as well. You've got to finish strong. If you start great, you still need to finish strong, be able to finish it off.” 

Top image: Legion XIII Captain Jon Rahm hits a tee shot on No. 14 during a practice round on Tuesday at Augusta National Golf Club as Fireballs GC Captain Sergio Garcia and Torque GC's Carlos Ortiz look on. (Photo by Montana Pritchard/LIV Golf)