Projected magic numbers for Lock Zone and avoiding relegation

CARROLLTON, Texas – If the latest point projections are correct, HyFlyers GC Captain Phil Mickelson is a safe bet to finish inside LIV Golf’s Top 24 Lock Zone this season.

The analytics experts at Champion Data issued their latest point projections for the Lock Zone – which guarantees a full-time spot for 2026 – as well as the point total needed to avoid relegation.

Here are the projections going into this week’s LIV Golf Dallas presented by Aramco, the ninth of 13 regular-season tournaments this season (with the 14th event being the Michigan Team Championship). Reminder that only the top 24 players and ties at each LIV Golf tournament receive points on a sliding scale, with 40 points for the winner to 1 point for those finishing 21st-24th. Click here for more on LIV Golf's standings and format.

LOCK ZONE

Just like previous LIV Golf seasons, the top 24 finishers in the season-long Individual Championship race will secure spots for next year. The final standings will be determined at LIV Golf Indianapolis on Aug. 15-17 at The Club at Chatham Hills.

In 2023, the 24th-ranked player at the end of the regular season (Stinger GC Captain Louis Oosthuizen) finished with 55 points. That averages to 4.23 points per event over 13 tournaments.

In 2024, the 24th player (HyFlyers GC’s Brendan Steele) finished with 48.10 points, an average of 3.70 points.

The average annual points total for No. 24 over those two seasons is 51.60 points.

This season, the 24th ranked player through the first eight tournaments is RangeGoats GC Captain Bubba Watson with 36.08 points, or an average of 4.51 points per event. For 13 points, that average would result in a total of 58.63 points.

Based on the previous two seasons as well as the current one, Champion Data projects a magic number of 55 points to finish in the Lock Zone.

The top 11 players in the current standings have already reached that total – including No. 11 on that list, Mickelson, who has 55.68 points in just seven starts (he missed the season opener with an injury). The HyFlyers captain is having his best run of form since joining LIV Golf, with three top-6 finishes this season, including his first podium result, a third place in Hong Kong.

PLAYERS ALREADY ABOVE PROJECTED LOCK ZONE TOTAL

DROP ZONE

Players finishing 49th or lower in the points standings after LIV Golf Indianapolis will be relegated from the league and could return only by playing their way back into the league via winning The International Series crown or through LIV Golf Promotions.

In 2023, LIV Golf had a starting grid of 48 players for each tournament, with players avoiding relegation by finishing 44th or higher. The 44th player that season was Laurie Canter with 12 points, an average of 0.92 per event.

In 2024, LIV Golf added one team (Legion XIII) and two other independent Wild Card spots for a total of 54 players per event. All players finishing 48th or higher were safe from relegation. Pat Perez finished at 48th with 7.76 total points, an average of 0.60 points per event.

The average points needed from those two seasons to avoid relegation is 9.98 points, an average of 0.76 points per tournament.

The current player on the relegation bubble at No. 48 is Ripper GC’s Matt Jones at 3.25 points (0.41 per event). That puts him on pace for 5.33 points this season.

Based on the previous two seasons as well as the current one, Champion Data projects a magic number of approximately 5.50 points to avoid relegation by finishing just above the Drop Zone.

A total of 42 players has easily exceeded that total, including Majesticks GC Co-Captain Lee Westwood, who is No. 42 on the points list at 7.20 points.

One of his fellow co-captains, Henrik Stenson, is next on the last with 5.52 points. With the potential variance, Stenson is too close to the magic number to confidently project him as safe, according to Champion Data. Thus, he’s included in the list of full-time players below.

PLAYERS BELOW PROJECTED NUMBER TO AVOID RELEGATION

* Has made just one start since joining LIV Golf
+ Wild Cards