INSIDE THE ODDS: LOOKING AT THE LIV GOLF DC FIELD
The LIV Golf League heads to Washington D.C. this week for LIV Golf DC at Trump National Golf Club. Here is some expert statistical analysis from Champion Data based on a closer look at the individual and team odds for the seventh event of the 2023 season.
Individual Contenders
Brooks Koepka (+700)
2023: Finishes: 31-29-1-19-3-5
A pretty compelling case can be made that Brooks Koepka is the best golfer on the globe right now, adding to his LIV Orlando win with a PGA Championship this past weekend. He also led through three rounds at Masters. Genuine star but expect this week has been more about celebration than preparation.
Verdict: Backing up is hard to do
Cameron Smith (+800)
2023 Finishes: 6-26-29-4-7-2
One fancies Smith is starting to return to his best. He has three straight top-seven finishes in the LIV Golf League and tied a low-round record with a sublime 61 in Tulsa. He backed that up in the PGA Championship with a final round low-score of 65 to finish inside the Top 10. He leads LIV in putting average and birdie or better while he ranks third in par 4 scoring. Should be at the top of the leaderboard.
Verdict: Tick on form, tick on setup
Dustin Johnson (+1200)
2023 Finishes: 37-13-7-10-25-1
Johnson's early-season slump is a thing of the past as a return to American soil saw the icon add another win to his record at LIV Golf Tulsa. He also started well at Oak Hill, though some erratic form off the tee saw him slip over the weekend. The big plus for Johnson here is his form on Tom Fazio designed courses, with a win in 2016 and Top 10s at Caves Valley, Congaree and Conway Farms.
Verdict: Hard to see him not contending
Talor Gooch (+1400)
2023 Finishes: 14-14-18-1-1-37
Became the first player to win back-to-back LIV tournaments earlier this season, but worth noting that those wins came in Australia and Singapore and he has not posted a Top 10 in four US starts (including two majors) this season. Ranks top five in par 4 scoring, scrambling and birdie or better, so he fits the profile.
Verdict: Can win but not a lot of value at the odds
Joaquin Niemann (+1700)
2023 Finishes: 11-37-33-30-10-8
Chilean who is the only player in the top 10 in betting that does not rank top 10 in putting average, birdie or better, scrambling or GIR. Back-to-back top 10s suggest a return to form and he finished sixth at a similar course, Shadow Creek, in 2020.
Verdict: Not a great betting proposition this week given the odds
Patrick Reed (+1800)
2023 Finishes: 38-18-4-3-14-11
With putting expected to be a critical factor this week, Reed is very much in the mix. Reed ranks seventh in putting average and fifth in birdie or better, while he is a top-five scrambler in the LIV Golf League this year. Finished inside the top 18 in his last five LIV events and 4th and 18th in his two majors this year. Look set to be a major player this week.
Verdict: Must be included in betting cards
Mito Pereira (+1800)
2023 Finishes: 16-6-6-27-5-31
Pereira has been in elite form from tee to green this year. He leads LIV in GIR and ranks second in scrambling. It has resulted in three top six finishes in his last five LIV starts. The worry though, is his form on the green. He ranks bottom 10 in putting average and with putting the top statistical guide this week, he is more lay than play in DC.
Verdict: Putting the worry again
Charles Howell III (+1800)
2023 Finishes: 1-5-26-21-8-11
No player brings a better profile to Trump National than the consistent Charles Howell III. This season he leads LIV in scrambling and par four scoring while he ranks second in GIR, fifth in birdie or better and ninth in putting average. Won in Mayakoba and can win again.
Verdict: A very strong bet
Bryson DeChambeau (+2000)
2023 Finishes: 26-9-45-14-2-5
Big-hitting Bryson DeChambeau has certainly found some form of late with three straight top five finishes including at Oak Hill with a fine performance in the PGA Championship. While the length of Trump National will play into his game, bottom 12 rankings in putting average and scrambling suggest this is not a track to play him on.
Verdict: Form is impressive but not the best fit
Peter Uihlein (+2300)
2023 Finishes: 2-10-8-7-11-24
A machine of consistency with five top 11 finishes in six starts this season. He is tied for first in birdie or better, while he ranks second in putting average. Distance is a plus but short game form, which is statistically average, is a concern.
Verdict: Top 10 again looms
INDIVIDUAL LONGSHOTS
Jason Kokrak (+2800)
2023 Season: 19-38-12-11-6-11
Kokrak won in 2020 on the Tom Fazio designed Shadow Creek, an excellent guide for this course. He leads LIV in par 4 scoring while he ranks fifth in birdie or better and sixth in GIR. Four straight Top 12 finishes, so he's trending north.
Verdict: Once again a very good bet
Anibarn Lahiri (+3500)
2023 Finishes: 32-30-2-19-11
Lahiri has a sensational record on Tom Fazio courses with top 10 finishes in the 2017, 2018 and 2022. Ranks fifth in par 4 scoring, eighth in scrambling and 10th in putting average so course should suit perfectly.
Verdict: The pick of the longshots
Carlos Ortiz (+4000)
2023 Finishes: 7-2-8-36-19-30
Opened the season with three top eight finishes but results have dropped off last three with only one other top 25. Ranks sixth in putting average and 10th in birdie or better, so Trump National should be to his liking.
Verdict: Looks a very good fit.
Team Profiles
4ACES GC | Odds: (+375) 2023 Finishes: 2-2-3-1-9-2 The 4 Aces have been the most reliable team in the LIV Golf League this year with five podium finishes. They will likely again be looking at a top three finish with Dustin Johnson one of the best bets and Reed, Uihlein and even Pat Perez all in line to finish in the mix. Verdict: Clearly on top as the best bet |
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RANGEGOATS GC | Odds: (+400) 2023 Finishes: 8-8-8-2-1-3 The rise of Talor Gooch has seen the rise of the RangeGoats with three straight podium finishes. Harold Varner III has also posted back-to-back top 10 finishes while Bubba Watson has top 12 finishes in two of his last three. They find greens and scramble well, but not very good odds this week. Verdict: Definite contenders but odds too short |
CRUSHERS GC | Odds: (+450) 2023 Finishes: 1-9-10-5-3-4 The Crushers are a hard team to assess this week. Charles Howell III is the top selection and Anirban Lahiri is the pick of the longshots, but Paul Casey (injury) has been replaced by alternate Andy Ogeltree - testing the depth of the team. DeChambeau is playing well, but strikes an unsuitable course. Verdict: Should be pushing for a podium finish |
SMASH GC | Odds: (+550) 2023 Finishes: 9-10-2-6-5-5 The worry for Smash this week was the success Brooks Koepka had in claiming his fifth major. Koepka has not historically held form off a major win. Kokrak enjoyed a birthday this week but with Wolff riding three straight weeks outside the top 30 and Chase not finishing higher than 24th, it might be a long week for Smash. Verdict: Not a great week to bet Smash |
FIREBALLS GC | Odds: (+750) 2023 Finishes: 6-1-7-9-2-6 No team has shown more variance this season with two top-two finishes and four finishes outside the top five. Fireballs are the most accurate team in LIV this year, but that advantage is negated on this track while a bottom-ranked sand save percentage could hurt on a track where bunkers are a major defense. Verdict: Trump National is not a great fit for their style |
TORQUE GC | Odds: (+800) 2023 Finishes: 3-7-1-7-4-8 Mito Pereira has been Torque’s standout player, but his putting woes have kept him from a podium finish. Trump National does not, on paper, suit Pereira, Niemann or Munoz and with Puig not having a top 20 finish, Torque is not a great bet in DC. Verdict: Probably not their week |
STINGER GC | Odds: (+900) 2023 Finishes: 4-4-4-3-10-1 Stinger have been uber-reliable this year and got a much-deserved win in Tulsa. Stinger lead no key category this week but they also struggle in no area either. The class is there, and with Burmester having three top-eight finishes in his last four starts, Stinger should again be there. Verdict: Too classy and too deep to ignore |
RIPPER GC | Odds: (+1000) 2023 Finishes: 5-5-12-8-6-7 The Australians are the worst par-3 team in 2023 and they rank bottom three in greens found, so a few red flags heading into DC. Smith is getting to his best and Marc Leishman has a win on a Fazio course, but Jones ranks bottom 10 in both birdie or better and par 4 scoring. With Jed Morgan not having a top-15 finish, that puts Ripper behind the eight-ball this week. Verdict: No top-four finishes this year and the ask looks too big for Smith |
HYFLYERS GC | Odds: (+2500) 2023 Finishes: 7-6-9-4-8-10 No team is less accurate off the tee, but that won’t be a problem this week with such generous fairways. Cameron Tringale profiles well for the course and Phil Mickelson comes off his 100th made cut in a major. Floor is low but ceiling is high. Verdict: Can find the podium at big odds |
IRON HEADS GC | Odds: (+6600) 2023 Finishes: 10-3-11-10-7-11 Iron Heads have finished bottom three in four of six tournaments and no team is averaging a higher score per hole and per round. Their +33 on par 4s is second worst, while they are the lowest-ranked scramblers and finders of the green on tour. Verdict: Unlikely to figure at Trump National |
MAJESTICKS GC | Odds: (+6600) 2023 Finishes: 11-12-6-11-11-9 Finished 11th or worse in four of the six events this year with the European-based team of veterans, one of just three teams to have shot over par on par fours in 2023. Ranks bottom three in driving distance and putting average. Verdict: Westwood back but unlikely to figure |
CLEEKS GC | Odds: (+15000) 2023 Finishes: 12-11-5-12-12-12 The Cleeks have finished last in four events, including the last three. The team ranks second last in driving distance and last in GIR and putting average. The only top 25 individual performance of any of their four was a 20th from Wiesberger in Tulsa. Verdict: Deserved outsiders |
Insights and Analytics provided by Champion Data