Repeat showdown in Chicago: Spectacular Niemann vs. Steady Rahm

BOLINGBROOK, Ill. – Joaquin Niemann has enjoyed a record amount of success during this LIV Golf season but has struggled for consistency. His closest rival, Jon Rahm, has been the league’s most dependable player but has yet to celebrate an individual title.

Sometime either this weekend in Chicago or next week in Indianapolis, one of those two LIV Golf captains is expected to claim the league’s season-long Individual Championship. The outcome may very well depend on whether Niemann can develop some consistency or if Rahm can produce his first win – and he may even need two to close out the season.

Either way, it’s a battle not only reminiscent of last season’s duel between two of the league’s biggest stars, it also has shaped into the ultimate Spectacular vs. Steady showdown. And no one doubts the worthiness of either competitor.

“What both of them have done this year is incredible,” said fellow LIV Golf competitor Patrick Reed.

Certainly what Niemann, the 26-year-old Torque GC captain, has done this season is unprecedented, winning five of the first 11 tournaments, including the most recent one two weeks ago at LIV Golf UK by JCB. That’s given him a commanding lead of 37.64 points over Rahm in the season-long race entering this week’s tournament at Bolingbrook. The only other player with even a mathematical shot of catching Niemann is Bryson DeChambeau, and that probability is less than 1%.

The fact that Rahm – the Legion XIII captain and last year’s Individual Champion – not only remains within striking distance of Niemann but could potentially overtake him with a win in Chicago may have you scratching your head.

It certainly did for Rahm last month after his runner-up finish at Andalucia. He took a glance at the updated Individual standings after the event and noticed he had reduced Niemann’s lead to a surprisingly small 13 points, even though Niemann had four wins on his ledger at the time.

“One of those moments where math wasn’t mathing very well,” Rahm joked.

Here’s how the math works: Each LIV Golf tournament win is worth 40 points, second place is 30 points, and the distribution totals continue to drop from there, with players finishing between 21-24 on the leaderboard receiving one point. No points are given to players outside the top 24.

Niemann has been amply rewarded for his five wins – worth a cumulative 200 points – but has produced only 6.8 points in his other six starts. He’s twice finished outside the top 24, and three other times, he’s finished top 20 or worse during his hit-or-miss season.

Now compare that to Rahm, who has two runner-up finishes and eight other top 10s this year. His worse result is a T11 in Dallas – the only time in the 23 career regular-season LIV Golf events he’s completed that he hasn’t finished inside the top 10.

In his 11 non-winning starts, Rahm is averaging 15.38 points. In Neimann’s six non-winning starts, his average is 1.13 points. That’s how the tortoise stays in the race against the hare.

“Somebody told me the weeks he hasn't won, he hasn't had his best stuff and hasn't added a lot of points, so that's where keeping my consistency, I've had a chance to stay somewhat close,” Rahm said. “Now, he has won five times, so that gets us as close as I can get without getting a win.”

Asked if he was surprised he had yet to clinch the Individual Championship despite winning 45% of the league’s tournaments this season, Niemann offered a diplomatic response.

“It's just the way the point system is right now,” he said. “I feel like they probably should have more points into winning. That would be awesome in my way. But it could be the other way next year. If I’m not going to win, and I can still have a chance to win on the last two tournaments. I will take that.

“It all depends. In the situation that I’m in right now, obviously I would love to see more points for winning, but it's just the way it's set up.”

Niemann concedes that consistency is “the hardest thing about this game” and that it’s something he’s striving to improve on. A year ago, he won twice, had four other top-3 podiums and four other top 10s. His league-leading point total through 11 events last season (189.40) is not all that far behind his total through 11 events this year (206.80).

“If I look back to last year, it was probably more consistent than my year now, but I’ve won more times this year,” Niemann said. “It's hard to decide which one is better or not, but it's obviously definitely harder to be consistent all year-round.”

Even so, winning is what matters for elite golfers, and no one has done it more often in LIV Golf that Niemann, who has seven LIV Golf wins in the last two years. He also claimed the International Series championship last December with a win at the PIF Saudi International and won the Australian Open late in 2023.

“Winning’s hard,” said Reed, the 4Aces GC star who recently won his first LIV Golf title in Dallas. “Look at Tiger [Woods]. Before he got really injured, he had the highest winning percentage ever on the PGA Tour, and it was like 19%. You do that in any other sport, win 19% and you’re probably not going to have a job in that sport. But that’s our standard, the golden standard in golf. So, to win five times [in one season] out here is unbelievable.”

Added Fireballs GC Captain Sergio Garcia: “It’s very impressive what he’s done without a doubt, and mostly because of the kind of players we have out here. It’s not like we’re giving it away to him. He’s winning it – and he’s winning with a lot of good stuff.”

A year ago, Rahm turned a consistent season into a championship one, as he won two of the last three regular-season events to catch Niemann. That second win came at Bolingbrook to decide the Individual title.

Although the odds are less favorable, Rahm has a chance to produce a similar rally starting this week. But he’s got to find a way to knock Niemann off the top of the podium.

“If I can win this week and he doesn't have a great one,” Rahm said, “I think it's definitely going to be a fun week going into next week.”

On the flip side, Niemann has an opportunity to make amends for last year and wrap up the season-long Individual Championship at Bolingbrook. A sixth win this season would definitely do the trick.

“I'm pretty clear on what I have to do,” he said. “I have no idea if I'm going to play good or bad. I don't know. But I'm just going to do the right thing that I know I have to do. I'm just going to focus on that.”